FCSS: Formula for Success in March/April Madness
It is finally time for the Final Four. Today is the day.
What happened to all of the upsets? All of the madness? What happened to the days of #1 seeds getting knocked off before the Final Four?
Only 3 other times has three #1 seeds made the Final Four (1993, 1997, and 1999). It hasn’t happened in 16 years.
2008 was the only year since expansion to 40 teams (1979) that the Final Four was all #1 seeds.
In 2011, the highest seed to reach the Final Four was a 3 seed.
3 times (1980, 2006, 2011) not a single number one seed made the Final Four.
Only 6 times since the field has expanded to 64 teams has two #1 seeds met in the championship game. We are ensured at least one #1 seed, and Duke should beat Michigan State, so it will happened this year too.
Only one other 7 seed (since 1979) has made the final four. Virginia in 1984.
So is this year just an anomaly? Perhaps.
As stated last week, I think that the top 6-8 teams in the nation were much MUCH better than the rest of the teams, which is not usually the case.
There were 8 teams that entered the tournament with 4 losses or fewer. I would have to go back and check, but that seems like an unusually high number. However, 2 seed Kansas and 3 seed Iowa State had 8 losses and No 3 Oklahoma had 10 losses. UNC had 11 losses.
There are only two reasons why a team would have few losses. They are actually really good, or play in a weak conference. So lets take a look.
Records are based on when the tournament started. Order based on AP top 25.
1Kentucky 34-0 – Good conference, best team.
2Villanova 32-2 – Weak conference, record due to weak conference.
3Wisconsin 31-3 – Tough conference, good team.
4Duke 29-4 – Tough conference, good team.
5Arizona 31-3 – Good conference, best team in conference by far.
6Virginia 29-3 – Tough Conference, playing style wins games in season, but not in tournament.
7Gonzaga 32-2 – Weak conference, Record due to conference and how good they were.
8Notre Dame 29-5 – Tough conference, good team.
9Iowa State 25-8 – Good conference, but still had 8 losses?
10Kansas 26-8 – Good conference, but sill had 8 losses?
11Northern Iowa 30-3 – Weaker conference, still a good team.
12Maryland 27-6 – Tough conference, decent team but had only PG injured.
13Oklahoma 22-10 – Good conference, but 10 losses?
14Wichita St 28-4 – Weaker conference, still a good team.
15North Carolina 24-11 – Tough conference, but 11 losses?
23Michigan State – Don’t bet against Tom Izzo in the NCAA tournament.
So the teams that won most of their conference games in good or tough conferences were able to win games in the tournament. Teams from weaker conferences or with worse records were not able to win games.
Let use compare to the 2011 tournament. The year the highest seed in the Final Four was a 3. The seeds of the Final 4 were #3 UConn, #4 Kentucky, #8 Butler, and #11 VCU.
#1 Seeds: Ohio State (32-2), Duke (30-4), Kansas (32-2), and Pittsburgh (27-5)
#2 Seeks: UNC (26-7), San Diego St (32-2), Notre Dame (26-6) and Florida (26-7)
So to tonight’s games. No surprise who I am cheering for. UK should beat Wisconsin, but having the most efficient offensive team versus the most efficient defensive team is going to be a great watch.
Duke is going to beat Michigan State sadly. Duke has DRAMATICALLY improved its defense from the regular season. I did not see that coming, which is why I thought Gonzaga would be able to beat Duke.
Championship Game: Kentucky over Duke. I’m setting the over under on the amount of Laettner references at 4.5. It will be well over if the game is close and tied in the last few minutes.
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