We do know that, on StatusNet times, the StatusNet network was basically identi.ca. The Diaspora* network was basically joindiaspora.com for a long time (until, hey... they closed registrations there).

Do we? I'd love it if anyone has data from the time, but my feeling is that there were a lot more people running (OStatus protocol at the time) instances when identi.ca was a magnet. Some people chose to run their own and that's great. But a really strong attractor is needed for those who don't want to, and for those who want to but want the network to be big so as to be worth the trouble. And a strong attractor is needed so someone/entity has resources to put into development.

I think the strong attractor being a paid service is best of all worlds -- direct $ for development, incentive for those who might think abut running own to do so.

So, I think, if the people trying to get a system to succeed allow this misconceptions to continue, nothing is achieved.

We may have different goals. I want freedom for the masses, and that requires massive resources to compete with non-free services. You may more highly value pure concepts for the few who opt in. Fine!